Dayton
Investment Analysis

Dayton, OH
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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59
Investment Score
Strong Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
4.0%
Gross Yield
6.7%
P/R Ratio
10.7x
YoY Growth
+2.0%
Median Home Price
$143,500
Average Rent (1BR)
$800/mo
Median Income
$45,995
Population
135,507

Investment Breakdown

68
Value Score
71
Growth Score
32
Safety Score
58
Afford Score

Dayton has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.7x, which indicates buying is significantly better than renting.

The estimated cap rate of 4.0% is around the national average.

Year-over-year price growth of +2.0% indicates stable market conditions.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $800
Annual Gross $9,600

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$179
Insurance (~0.5%) -$60
Maintenance (~1%) -$120
Est. Net Cash Flow $441/mo

Price Forecast 2026–2028

🔮 Dayton Price Forecast 20262028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis · Statistical projection
📈 Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$131K2027$141K 7.6%2028$148K 12.5%20232024Now
$155K$111K
Current
$144K
2026
Projected
$141K
7.6% by 2027
Projected
$148K
12.5% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+6.0%
Confidence:High
R²:0.91

For those evaluating a Dayton housing market forecast through 2028, the numbers suggest a market with remarkable stability and value. With a median home price of $131,330 and a price-to-rent ratio of just 12.0x, the fundamental case for buying remains compelling—especially when compared to the national average of 18x. The area's affordability is a key driver, supported by a diversified local economy anchored by Wright-Patterson Air Force Base and the University of Dayton. While the 1.3% YoY price change indicates a cooling from the 5-year CAGR of 6.4%, this moderation is healthy. For anyone asking will Dayton home prices drop, this slower appreciation suggests a soft landing rather than a correction, preventing the overheating seen in many other U.S. cities.

Looking ahead to the Dayton real estate Dayton 2027 landscape, the market’s low-risk profile (Risk Grade: A) and fast-moving inventory (Days on Market: 24) point to sustained, steady demand. The 5-year price change of 36.8% demonstrates strong underlying momentum that is unlikely to reverse entirely, even with broader economic headwinds. Continued investment in downtown revitalization and infrastructure, coupled with persistent affordability, will likely attract both first-time buyers and investors seeking cash flow. However, potential buyers should remain mindful of interest rate volatility and local job market fluctuations. The forecast is for modest, single-digit growth rather than the rapid gains of the past five years, positioning Dayton as a reliable, long-term hold rather than a speculative hotspot.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
4.2%
5yr CAGR
+6%

Job Market

Unemployment 3.8%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +0.8%

Healthcare

74
Score
Good

Risk Factors

High Crime Area

Market Activity

Source: Redfin · 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 95.4%
Months Supply 4.8
Price Drops 26%
Gone in 2 Wks 35%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Dayton.

Total ROI
-4%
on $28,700 invested
Annual ROI
-0.9%
compounded
Total Return
-$1,233
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$347
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y133kY237kY341kY446kY551k
Appreciation
$15,324
Cash Flow
-$16,558
Final Equity
$50,752

* Estimates based on 2.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Dayton

Property

Purchase Price$143,500
Monthly Rent$800
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$354
Monthly Cash Flow
-$4,244/ year
-14.8%
Cash-on-Cash
3.1%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$800
− Mortgage (P&I)$726
− Property Tax$144
− Insurance$125
− Maintenance$120
− Vacancy Loss$40
= Net Cash Flow-$354

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$28,700
Loan Amount
$114,800
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,154
Gross Yield
6.7%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026