Wichita Falls, TX

Market Cycle

The market is in a stable, balanced phase with a -1.2% YoY price change indicating slight softening rather than a crash. This creates a window for buyers to enter before potential appreciation. The 56 DOM suggests properties move at a moderate pace, giving buyers leverage without extreme urgency.

Supply & Demand

Inventory stands at 408 units with 5.0 months of supply, leaning toward a buyer's market but remaining balanced. New listings (99) are outpacing closed sales (81), which supports the price softening. The 94.0% sale-to-list ratio shows sellers are negotiating, offering room for value acquisition.

Pricing Power

Buyers hold meaningful pricing power with 20.8% of listings seeing price drops. The 3.7% off-market in 2 weeks rate indicates some urgency but not overheating. With a P/R of 14.7x, prices are supported by rental demand, limiting downside risk while allowing for strategic offers below asking.

Monthly Costs

At a $165,644 purchase price with a 6.5% mortgage rate, monthly P&I is ~$1,047. With taxes, insurance, and maintenance (~$300), total costs reach ~$1,347 vs. $843 rent. This creates a $504 monthly premium to own, but equity build (~$200/mo) narrows the gap to ~$304 net cost.

5-Year View

Assuming 2% annual appreciation, the property value reaches ~$182,800 in 5 years. Cumulative equity build (~$12,000) plus appreciation (~$17,000) totals ~$29,000 gain. Rent inflation at 3% annually would raise rent to ~$975, making buying more attractive over time.

When to Rent

• Short-term stay under 3 years
• Need for mobility
• Insufficient down payment

When to Buy

• Long-term hold over 5 years
• Seeking cash flow after equity build
• Locking in housing costs

Cash Flow

With a $843 rent and ~$1,347 total ownership costs, the property is initially cash flow negative by ~$504/month. However, after accounting for principal paydown (~$200/mo), the net cost is ~$304/month. This is viable for investors with strong W2 income or those using house hacking to offset costs.

House Hacking

A duplex or single-family with a roommate can drastically improve economics. Renting out a room for $400 reduces net cost to ~$104/month. This strategy turns the investment cash-flow positive immediately while building equity, aligning with the BUY verdict for active investors.

Target Investor

The ideal investor is a long-term buy-and-hold player with a 5+ year horizon, seeking stability over explosive growth. They have a strong income to cover initial negative cash flow and value the A-risk rating for low volatility. This fits BRRRR investors who can force appreciation through renovations.

Entry-Level

Neighborhoods like Northside and Eastside offer homes under $150k. These areas have higher rental demand from blue-collar workers but may require more maintenance. The 14.7x P/R ratio is achievable here, offering solid long-term yields as the city grows.

Mid-Range

Areas like Southside and Wichita Falls proper feature homes in the $160k-$200k range. These attract families and stable tenants. With 56 DOM, these properties sell steadily. The balance of affordability and quality makes them prime for house hacking or long-term holds.

Premium

University Park and FAFB-adjacent areas command prices over $220k. These appeal to military personnel and professionals, offering lower vacancy but higher entry costs. The 94% sale-to-list ratio holds better here, indicating stronger pricing power for sellers in this segment.