Wichita Falls, TX
⚖️ Balanced Market📊 Fundamental Scores
🎯 The Bottom Line
Wichita Falls offers affordable entry at $165,644 with a 14.7x price-to-rent ratio. The market is balanced with slight price softening, making it a BUY for cash-flow focused investors seeking stability.
📈 Price History
📊 Market Activity
📈 Market Analysis
Market Cycle
The market is in a stable, balanced phase with a -1.2% YoY price change indicating slight softening rather than a crash. This creates a window for buyers to enter before potential appreciation. The 56 DOM suggests properties move at a moderate pace, giving buyers leverage without extreme urgency.
Supply & Demand
Inventory stands at 408 units with 5.0 months of supply, leaning toward a buyer's market but remaining balanced. New listings (99) are outpacing closed sales (81), which supports the price softening. The 94.0% sale-to-list ratio shows sellers are negotiating, offering room for value acquisition.
Pricing Power
Buyers hold meaningful pricing power with 20.8% of listings seeing price drops. The 3.7% off-market in 2 weeks rate indicates some urgency but not overheating. With a P/R of 14.7x, prices are supported by rental demand, limiting downside risk while allowing for strategic offers below asking.
Wichita Falls, TX Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
🔮 Wichita Falls Price Forecast 2026–2028
Wichita Falls, TX Housing Market Forecast 2026–2028
When evaluating the Wichita Falls housing market forecast for 2026-2028, the data suggests a period of stabilization rather than explosive growth. With a median home price of $165,644 and a price-to-rent ratio of 14.7x, the market remains significantly more affordable than the national average, which supports continued buyer interest. However, the recent YoY price change of -1.2% indicates that the rapid appreciation seen over the past five years (a 5-year CAGR of 6.0%) is cooling. For potential buyers asking 'will Wichita Falls home prices drop,' the answer appears to be a gentle plateau rather than a sharp decline, supported by a low risk grade of A and a market temperature of 58/100 that leans balanced.
Local economic factors will play a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of Wichita Falls real estate Wichita Falls 2027. The area’s affordability, with median rent at $843/mo, attracts budget-conscious residents, but limited high-wage industry growth could cap significant price surges. Days on market averaging 56 days indicates a market that is neither freezing nor frenzied, giving buyers slightly more leverage than in previous years. While the 5-year price range of $122,984 – $167,732 shows consistent value retention, external factors like interest rates and regional job stability will be the true drivers. Ultimately, the 'BUY' verdict is compelling for long-term residents seeking stability, though investors should expect modest returns compared to hotter markets.
Disclaimer: This forecast is a statistical projection based on historical price trends and should not be considered financial advice. Actual market outcomes may vary due to economic conditions, interest rates, local regulations, and other factors.
🏠 Rent vs Buy Analysis
Monthly Costs
At a $165,644 purchase price with a 6.5% mortgage rate, monthly P&I is ~$1,047. With taxes, insurance, and maintenance (~$300), total costs reach ~$1,347 vs. $843 rent. This creates a $504 monthly premium to own, but equity build (~$200/mo) narrows the gap to ~$304 net cost.
5-Year View
Assuming 2% annual appreciation, the property value reaches ~$182,800 in 5 years. Cumulative equity build (~$12,000) plus appreciation (~$17,000) totals ~$29,000 gain. Rent inflation at 3% annually would raise rent to ~$975, making buying more attractive over time.
When to Rent
- Short-term stay under 3 years
- Need for mobility
- Insufficient down payment
When to Buy
- Long-term hold over 5 years
- Seeking cash flow after equity build
- Locking in housing costs
🧮 Can You Afford Wichita Falls? Interactive Calculator
Income Reality Check
Can you actually afford Wichita Falls?
Great! At 17.3%, this mortgage falls within healthy financial limits. You have strong purchasing power in Wichita Falls.
💰 Investment Thesis
Cash Flow
With a $843 rent and ~$1,347 total ownership costs, the property is initially cash flow negative by ~$504/month. However, after accounting for principal paydown (~$200/mo), the net cost is ~$304/month. This is viable for investors with strong W2 income or those using house hacking to offset costs.
House Hacking
A duplex or single-family with a roommate can drastically improve economics. Renting out a room for $400 reduces net cost to ~$104/month. This strategy turns the investment cash-flow positive immediately while building equity, aligning with the BUY verdict for active investors.
Target Investor
The ideal investor is a long-term buy-and-hold player with a 5+ year horizon, seeking stability over explosive growth. They have a strong income to cover initial negative cash flow and value the A-risk rating for low volatility. This fits BRRRR investors who can force appreciation through renovations.
🏘️ House Hacking Calculator Interactive Calculator
House Hacking CalculatorOwner-Occupied Multi-Fam
🗺️ Neighborhood Breakdown
Entry-Level
Neighborhoods like Northside and Eastside offer homes under $150k. These areas have higher rental demand from blue-collar workers but may require more maintenance. The 14.7x P/R ratio is achievable here, offering solid long-term yields as the city grows.
Mid-Range
Areas like Southside and Wichita Falls proper feature homes in the $160k-$200k range. These attract families and stable tenants. With 56 DOM, these properties sell steadily. The balance of affordability and quality makes them prime for house hacking or long-term holds.
Premium
University Park and FAFB-adjacent areas command prices over $220k. These appeal to military personnel and professionals, offering lower vacancy but higher entry costs. The 94% sale-to-list ratio holds better here, indicating stronger pricing power for sellers in this segment.