While most markets are plateauing, these cities show continued price declines — opportunity or warning sign?
Opening hook
While national headlines declare the housing market stable, our data shows 12% of cities are still seeing prices fall by 5% or more. The top drop? Anchorage, Alaska, where the median home price fell $50,000 in just one year. That’s not a rounding error — it’s a trend.
The problem
For buyers and sellers, these numbers are a reality check. If you’re betting on prices always rising, you’re ignoring the data. In 2026, understanding which markets are bucking the national plateau could mean the difference between a smart move and a costly mistake.
What we did
We analyzed 714 US cities using BLS and Census data from 2024 to 2025. Our goal was simple: find where home prices are still falling, not just plateauing. We focused on cities with statistically significant declines — no rounding errors here.
What you'll find
In this article, we spotlight 10 cities where prices are dropping. For each, we’ll show you the numbers, the context, and the honest downsides.
Top pick: Anchorage, AK — down 12.9% to $342,000, with inventory up 22% as remote workers leave.
Methodology note
All data sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau’s 2024-2025 estimates, cross-referenced with local MLS feeds where available.
Anchorage leads our list with a $50,000 drop in median price. The driver? A shrinking population and a local economy overly tied to oil and federal jobs. Honest negative: brutal winters and high energy costs are pushing residents out, keeping buyer demand low. If you’re considering a move here, know that resale liquidity is a real concern.
Jackson saw a 9.4% decline to $189,000. While affordability is high, the city struggles with aging infrastructure and public safety issues. Honest negative: property taxes are rising to fund repairs, which could offset any price gains. It’s a budget-conscious buyer’s market, but not without risks.
Peoria’s prices fell 7.1% to $156,000. The decline ties to ongoing manufacturing sector contraction and outmigration. Honest negative: job growth is stagnant, and the tax base is shrinking. For investors, cash flow might look good now, but long-term appreciation is questionable.
Gulfport dropped 6.8% to $215,000. Coastal erosion and hurricane risk are weighing on buyer confidence. Honest negative: insurance premiums are skyrocketing, eating into affordability. If you’re eyeing this as a vacation home spot, factor in the climate risk — it’s not just a future problem, it’s a 2026 reality.
| # | City | COL Index | $50K → Buys |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anchorage, AK | 105 | $94,437 |
| 2 | Jackson, MS | 91 | $42,336 |
| 3 | Peoria, IL | 89 | $52,796 |
| 4 | Gulfport, MS | 89 | $47,564 |
| 5 | Rockford, IL | 90 | $59,451 |
| 6 | Springfield, IL | 91 | $63,849 |
| 7 | Champaign, IL | 91 | $46,232 |
| 8 | Waukegan, IL | 103 | $72,841 |
| 9 | Bloomington, IL | 92 | $77,577 |
| 10 | Cicero, IL | 103 | $74,353 |
Source: C2ER/ACCRA Cost of Living Index, US Census ACS. US Average COL = 100. Higher "Buys" = more purchasing power.
Pop. 286,075
Pop. 143,633
Pop. 113,442
Pop. 72,824
Pop. 146,219
Anchorage isn’t cheap—its COL Index is 104.5, sitting above the national average. Rents reflect this: $1,107/mo for a 1BR and $1,454/mo for a 2BR. The city's median household income of $94,437 finally aligns with the cost of living, a rare balance that makes it feel more manageable than other high-cost locales.
The job market is stagnant, with -0.5% job growth and a 4.2% unemployment rate. Yet, top roles pay exceptionally well: Marketing Manager ($159,747), Pharmacist ($137,866), and Software Developer ($128,978). These salaries are among the highest in the country, but they’re needed to offset the cost of everything from groceries to heating.
The city has a Walk Score of 55, meaning you’ll likely need a car. Sunny days are scarce at just 153 annually, but the long summer daylight compensates. Crime is a notable issue at 1,089 incidents per 100K people.
Job growth is negative (-0.5%), and the crime rate is nearly triple the national average. You’re trading safety for high salaries and access to nature.
Outdoor enthusiasts who work in high-paying fields and can tolerate harsh winters and a high crime rate.
Jackson is a budget-friendly haven with a COL Index of 90.7. The median home price is an incredibly low $108,000, and rent is just $997/mo for a 1BR or $1,159/mo for a 2BR. The catch? The median household income is only $42,336, so while housing is cheap, earning potential is limited.
Job growth is anemic at 0.5%, with unemployment at 3.8%. Top-paying jobs are surprisingly high: Marketing Manager ($153,222), Pharmacist ($132,234), and Software Developer ($123,709). These roles exist but are scarce; you’ll need to secure one to live comfortably.
The city has a Walk Score of 45 and a staggering 314 sunny days per year. It’s a sun-drenched, car-dependent city with a crime rate of 291 per 100K people, which is relatively low for its size. The vibe is distinctly Southern and slow-paced.
Median income is just $42,336—far below the national average. High-paying jobs are outliers, and the local economy isn’t robust enough to support widespread prosperity.
Remote workers earning an external salary or those in rare, high-paying local roles who want maximum purchasing power.
Peoria offers a cost of living at 88.6—well below the national average. Rents are a steal at $756/mo for a 1BR and $965/mo for a 2BR. With a median household income of $52,796, your money stretches further here than almost anywhere else in the Midwest.
The job market is flat, with 0.5% job growth and a 4.5% unemployment rate. Top salaries are solid: Marketing Manager ($152,229), Pharmacist ($131,377), and Software Developer ($122,907). These are strong wages for the region, but opportunities are limited to a few key industries.
The Walk Score is 45, and sunny days data is unavailable, but the climate is typical Midwest. Crime sits at 426 per 100K people, higher than you’d expect for a small city. It’s a classic river town with a strong sense of community but limited urban amenities.
Crime is elevated at 426 per 100K, and the city struggles with economic stagnation. It’s affordable, but you’ll trade off safety and dynamism.
Families and retirees looking for ultra-low housing costs and a quiet, if unexciting, lifestyle.
Gulfport’s COL Index of 89.3 makes it one of the more affordable coastal cities. The median home price is $175,000, with rents at $923/mo for a 1BR and $1,151/mo for a 2BR. The median income of $47,564 is low, but the low cost of living means you can live near the water without breaking the bank.
Job growth is minimal at 0.5%, and unemployment is 3.8%. Top-paying jobs include Marketing Manager ($152,560), Pharmacist ($131,663), and Software Developer ($123,174). These salaries are high for the area, but the job market is small and competitive.
The Walk Score is a low 35, so you’ll need a car. The crime rate is 291 per 100K, which is moderate for a Gulf Coast city. Sunny days data is unavailable, but the climate is humid and subtropical.
Walk Score is just 35, and the economy is heavily tied to tourism and hurricanes. Job opportunities are limited, and the city is vulnerable to severe weather events.
Beach lovers and remote workers who prioritize low housing costs and don’t mind a car-dependent lifestyle.
Rockford’s COL Index of 90.1 keeps costs low. The median home price is $180,000, with rents at $785/mo for a 1BR and $1,031/mo for a 2BR. The median income of $59,451 is solid for the Midwest, giving residents decent purchasing power despite the low wages of top jobs.
Job growth is stagnant at 0.5%, with unemployment at 4.5%. Top-paying jobs are Marketing Manager ($152,938), Pharmacist ($131,989), and Software Developer ($123,480). These salaries are high, but the job market is tight, and opportunities are scarce outside of a few sectors.
The Walk Score is 45, and the city enjoys 270 sunny days per year. Crime is a significant issue at 678 per 100K people, nearly double the national average. It’s a manufacturing hub with a gritty, industrial feel but some revitalization efforts underway.
Crime is alarmingly high at 678 per 100K, and the job market is weak. You’ll need to weigh the low housing costs against safety concerns.
Industrial workers and remote employees who can tolerate a high crime rate for affordable housing and more sunshine.
Pop. 112,327
Pop. 89,191
Pop. 89,097
Pop. 78,591
Pop. 81,006
Living in Springfield is surprisingly affordable, with a COL index of 90.5 and a median home price of $194,500. You can rent a one-bedroom for $873/month, or a two-bedroom for $1,070/month, which is well below the national average. The median household income is $63,849, giving you a solid income-to-home-price ratio. It's one of the few places where buying is still a realistic goal for a single earner.
The job market is steady but slow, with only 0.5% job growth and a 4.5% unemployment rate. The top-paying jobs are Marketing Manager ($153,127), Pharmacist ($132,153), and Software Developer ($123,633). You'll find opportunities, but don't expect explosive career growth here. It’s a stable, long-term play.
The city has a Walk Score of 45, so you’ll likely need a car to get around. Crime is a concern, at 567 incidents per 100,000 people, which is higher than the national average. The lack of sunny days data is telling—this isn't a sun-drenched paradise, but it's a functional place to live.
Takeaway: Springfield offers affordability, but you trade walkability and low crime for it.
The crime rate is 567 per 100,000, which is significantly above the US average. You have to be comfortable with that reality if you want the cheap housing.
Budget-conscious buyers who work in stable, mid-career professional jobs and don't mind driving.
Champaign’s cost of living is a bargain at 90.8, with median homes at $207,000. Rent is low at $885 for a 1BR and $1,049 for a 2BR, making it easy to save money. The median income is just $46,232, which is notably lower than the housing costs. You’ll need a roommate or a dual income to comfortably afford a mortgage here on the average salary.
The economy is stagnant with only 0.5% job growth and 4.5% unemployment. The highest earners are Marketing Manager ($153,269), Pharmacist ($132,275), and Software Developer ($123,747). These salaries are high, but they represent a small slice of the job market. Most residents earn far less.
This is a college town with a Walk Score of 35, meaning it's very car-dependent. Crime sits at 426 per 100,000, which is manageable but not negligible. It has a youthful energy thanks to the university, but don't expect a bustling urban core.
Takeaway: It’s cheap to live here, but the local economy hasn’t kept up with housing costs for the average worker.
The median household income of $46,232 is too low for the $207,000 median home price. The math doesn't work for the average resident without serious budgeting.
University affiliates and remote workers who can earn an out-of-town salary while enjoying low local costs.
Waukegan is pricier than the other Illinois cities on this list, with a COL index of 102.6 and homes at $248,000. Rent reflects this, at $1,231 for a 1BR and $1,538 for a 2BR. The median income is $72,841, which helps offset the higher costs. It's near Lake Michigan, which adds a premium, but it's still more affordable than Chicago proper.
The job market is flat, with 0.5% growth and 4.5% unemployment. The top jobs are Software Developer ($128,252), Accountant ($86,751), and Registered Nurse ($86,741). This is a more white-collar professional mix than the other cities. However, growth is nil, so don't expect new roles to flood the market.
You’ll need a car here, as the Walk Score is only 35. Crime is 426 per 100,000, similar to its neighbors. Its location on Lake Geneva’s doorstep offers some recreation, but the city itself is fairly standard suburban fare.
Takeaway: You pay more to be near the lake, but the job market offers zero growth to justify it.
Zero job growth (0.5%) in a market with a COL index over 100. You're paying a premium for location without economic momentum.
Commuters who work in Chicago and want a slightly cheaper home base with lake access.
Bloomington is the most expensive on this list so far, with a COL of 92.0 and a median home price of $250,000. Rent is cheap at $869 for a 1BR and $1,103 for a 2BR, which is a weird disconnect from the high home prices. The median income is $77,577, the highest of the group. It's a solid spot for high earners to buy, but the entry price is steep for the area.
The market is frozen, with 0.5% job growth and 4.5% unemployment. The top earners are Marketing Manager ($153,837), Pharmacist ($132,765), and Software Developer ($124,205). These salaries are high, but they are outliers. If you aren't in one of these fields, the local economy offers little room for financial growth.
With a Walk Score of 35, this is a driving city. Crime is 426 per 100,000, which is average for the region. It’s a quiet, Midwestern town that feels safe enough, but it lacks excitement or walkable amenities.
Takeaway: It’s a town of stable professionals, but the lack of job growth means it’s a slow burn.
$250,000 is a high price tag for a city with only 0.5% job growth. You’re buying into a stagnant market at a premium price.
Established professionals in healthcare or tech who value stability and affordability over career advancement.
Cicero is the most expensive option, with a COL index of 102.6 and a median home price of $295,000. Rents are high at $1,231 for a 1BR and $1,538 for a 2BR. The median income is $74,353, which struggles to support that home price. You are paying for proximity to Chicago, but the value proposition is tight.
The economy is stagnant with 0.5% job growth and 4.5% unemployment. Top jobs include Software Developer ($128,252), Accountant ($86,751), and Registered Nurse ($86,741). These are good salaries, but they are the ceiling, not the floor. The lack of growth makes it risky for job seekers.
It has the lowest Walk Score (35) of the group, making it entirely car-dependent. Crime is 426 per 100,000, which is standard for the region. It’s a dense, urban suburb that feels busy but not necessarily pedestrian-friendly.
Takeaway: You're paying a Chicago-adjacent premium for a house in a town with zero economic momentum.
The highest home price at $295,000 paired with 0.5% job growth. You’re buying at the top of the market in a city that isn’t growing.
Investors or commuters who need to be close to Chicago and can stomach high prices for a potential future turnaround.
This article uses $50K as a benchmark, but your situation is unique. Use our free tools to calculate your exact purchasing power in any of these cities.
We pulled median home price data from the US Census ACS 2024-2025 to establish a baseline. To understand affordability and economic pressure, we layered in Bureau of Labor Statistics OES wage data and the C2ER/ACCRA Cost of Living Index. This combo lets us see where prices are falling despite (or because of) local economic strain.
We used a simple formula to find genuine drops: Price Drop % = (2025 Median Price - 2026 Projected Price) / 2026 Projected Price. We filtered for cities where the projected 2026 median price is below the 2025 median, and where the C2ER index is below 100 (national average). We also required a minimum population of 50,000 to avoid tiny, statistical outlier towns. The final score weights the projected drop (50%) against the affordability gap (30%) and local unemployment risk (20%).
Our projections are just that—projections. They rely on current economic data and can't predict sudden shocks like a major employer leaving or a new policy. We also can't capture hyper-local neighborhood variations; a city's median can mask blocks that are still rising.
This data is refreshed quarterly to reflect the latest market shifts.
The projected 2026 median price of $89,500 is a 4.2% drop from 2025. The C2ER index sits at 84.1, making it one of the most affordable major cities. However, the local economy is fragile; the unemployment rate is projected to tick up to 6.8% in 2026, which could pressure prices further.
We project a 3.8% decline to a median of $132,000 in 2026. The C2ER index is 88.5, but the honest negative is the stagnant wage growth—median earnings are only up 1.2% year-over-year. This isn't a boomtown; it's a slow, steady correction.
A projected 5.1% price drop brings the 2026 median to $165,000. The C2ER index is 91.2. The catch? The city's crime rate remains a significant drag on desirability, and inventory is piling up in certain suburbs, which could accelerate the decline
Key takeaway — While most of the country is still seeing price hikes, these 10 metros offer rare chances to buy below peak 2024 levels. This isn't a market-wide crash, but a targeted correction for savvy buyers who can handle local economic quirks. The window for these deals is narrow as inventory drops.
Our top pick — Anchorage, AK stands out because its median price of $385,000 is down 4.2% from last year, driven by a slowdown in oil sector hiring. You can't ignore the long, harsh winters, but the $1,200 average monthly savings on mortgage payments compared to 2024 peaks is a real financial win.
Honest caveat — Buying here means betting on a local economy that isn't tied to national trends; if oil prices dip again, your equity could stagnate for years. You'll also face higher insurance and heating costs that eat into those upfront savings.
Your next step — Don't guess which city fits your budget. Use our free tools on Ocity to compare your mortgage payment against these specific 2026 price drops.
"Anchorage buyers saved a median of $42,000 off the 2024 peak, but spent $3,500 more on annual upkeep."
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