Duluth
Investment Analysis

Duluth, MN
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

Share:
65
Investment Score
Hold
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.5%
Gross Yield
4.1%
P/R Ratio
20.9x
YoY Growth
+6.3%
Median Home Price
$252,700
Average Rent (1BR)
$868/mo
Median Income
$61,163
Population
87,693

Investment Breakdown

37
Value Score
100
Growth Score
72
Safety Score
63
Afford Score

Duluth has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.9x, which indicates renting and buying are roughly equal.

The estimated cap rate of 2.5% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of +6.3% shows strong appreciation momentum.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $868
Annual Gross $10,416

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$316
Insurance (~0.5%) -$105
Maintenance (~1%) -$211
Est. Net Cash Flow $236/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Duluth Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$275K2027$287Kโ–ฒ 4.4%2028$300Kโ–ฒ 9.0%20232024Now
$315K$226K
Current
$253K
2026
Projected
$287K
โ†‘ 4.4% by 2027
Projected
$300K
โ†‘ 9.0% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+6.4%
Confidence:High
Rยฒ:0.95
โ–ผ

Looking at the Duluth housing market forecast for 2026-2028, the current data points to a period of moderation rather than the rapid appreciation seen in the past five years. The market has run hot, with a 5-year price change of 37.4% and a steady CAGR of 6.5%, pushing the median home price to $274,951. However, with a price-to-rent ratio of 23.1x significantly above the national average of 18x, affordability is becoming a real constraint. This suggests that while prices may not crash, the double-digit growth is likely unsustainable. For anyone asking if Duluth home prices will drop, the answer is nuanced: expect stagnation or single-digit gains, not a major decline, as the market remains fundamentally tight with homes selling in just 25 days.

The local economic backdrop and affordability crisis will be the key drivers through 2027. While Duluth benefits from stable sectors like healthcare, education, and logistics, wage growth has not kept pace with the 6.2% year-over-year price increase. This affordability gap is already pushing potential buyers to the sidelines, reflected in the "RENT" verdict and the high price-to-rent ratio. For Duluth real estate Duluth 2027, we anticipate a cooling period as the market finds a new equilibrium. The risk grade of A suggests underlying stability, but the market temperature of 68/100 indicates it is still competitive, just less frenzied. Ultimately, the forecast is one of stabilization; prices will likely hold steady due to low inventory and consistent demand, but the era of rapid equity building is likely over for the near term.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.2%
5yr CAGR
+6.4%

Job Market

Unemployment 2.8%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.5%

Healthcare

86
Score
Excellent

Risk Factors

Low Risk Profile

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Very Safe

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Duluth.

Total ROI
55%
on $50,540 invested
Annual ROI
9.1%
compounded
Total Return
$27,574
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,125
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y169kY288kY3108kY4130kY5153k
Appreciation
$90,444
Cash Flow
-$62,870
Final Equity
$152,830

* Estimates based on 6.3% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Duluth

Property

Purchase Price$252,700
Monthly Rent$868
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,041
Monthly Cash Flow
-$12,498/ year
-24.7%
Cash-on-Cash
1.1%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$868
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,278
โˆ’ Property Tax$253
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$211
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$43
= Net Cash Flow-$1,041

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$50,540
Loan Amount
$202,160
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,909
Gross Yield
4.1%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026