Killeen
Investment Analysis

Killeen, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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46
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.8%
Gross Yield
4.7%
P/R Ratio
15.8x
YoY Growth
-2.0%
Median Home Price
$229,900
Average Rent (1BR)
$900/mo
Median Income
$60,067
Population
159,635

Investment Breakdown

53
Value Score
30
Growth Score
43
Safety Score
58
Afford Score

Killeen has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.8% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -2.0% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $900
Annual Gross $10,800

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$287
Insurance (~0.5%) -$96
Maintenance (~1%) -$192
Est. Net Cash Flow $325/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Killeen Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$217K2027$241Kโ–ฒ 11.3%2028$249Kโ–ฒ 15.0%20232024Now
$262K$206K
Current
$230K
2026
Projected
$241K
โ†‘ 11.3% by 2027
Projected
$249K
โ†‘ 15.0% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+5.9%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.42
โ–ผ

The current data suggests a market in a holding pattern, which informs our Killeen housing market forecast through 2028. With a median home price of $216,554 and a recent YoY price change of -1.8%, the immediate data points to a cooling period following the strong 5-year gain of 34.8%. However, the local economy remains anchored by the significant presence of Fort Hood, which historically provides a stable floor for demand even as broader economic headwinds shift. The market temperature of 58/100 and a risk grade of A indicate that while appreciation has slowed, the area remains a fundamentally safe bet for long-term investors.

For prospective buyers asking "will Killeen home prices drop" significantly, the answer likely lies in the area's affordability. A price-to-rent ratio of 17.7x sits just below the national average, and a median rent of $900/mo keeps the barrier to entry reasonable compared to coastal markets. This affordability, combined with a 5-year CAGR of 6.1%, suggests that any price corrections will likely be shallow rather than steep. While Days on Market at 56 indicates a more balanced environment than the frenetic pace of recent years, the underlying demand from military personnel and families seeking value will likely prevent a drastic downturn.

Looking toward the Killeen real estate Killeen 2027 and 2028 outlook, the trajectory appears to be one of stabilization rather than explosive growth. The "NEUTRAL" buy/rent verdict suggests that immediate equity capture may be challenging, but the long-term fundamentals remain sound. As the broader Texas economy continues to evolve, Killeen's reliance on federal spending via Fort Hood acts as a buffer against recessionary pressures that might hit other Texas cities harder. Investors should expect modest, single-digit appreciation moving forward, driven by the area's unique affordability and consistent military-based population base rather than speculative fervor.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.8%
5yr CAGR
+5.9%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

High Crime Area
Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 98.2%
Months Supply 8.0
Price Drops 24%
Gone in 2 Wks 14%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Killeen.

Total ROI
-109%
on $45,980 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$50,320
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$919
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y148kY250kY352kY454kY557k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$50,320
Final Equity
$56,758

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Killeen

Property

Purchase Price$229,900
Monthly Rent$900
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$854
Monthly Cash Flow
-$10,248/ year
-22.3%
Cash-on-Cash
1.6%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$900
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,162
โˆ’ Property Tax$230
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$192
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$45
= Net Cash Flow-$854

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$45,980
Loan Amount
$183,920
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,754
Gross Yield
4.7%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026