Richmond
Investment Analysis

Richmond, CA
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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33
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.6%
Gross Yield
4.4%
P/R Ratio
17.1x
YoY Growth
-6.1%
Median Home Price
$635,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$2,304/mo
Median Income
$89,052
Population
114,104

Investment Breakdown

49
Value Score
0
Growth Score
50
Safety Score
32
Afford Score

Richmond has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.1x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.6% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -6.1% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $2,304
Annual Gross $27,648

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$794
Insurance (~0.5%) -$265
Maintenance (~1%) -$529
Est. Net Cash Flow $717/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Richmond Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
โžก๏ธ Stable
PROJECTEDNOW$586K2027$598Kโ–ฒ 2.0%2028$588Kโ–ฒ 0.3%20232024Now
$671K$557K
Current
$635K
2026
Projected
$598K
โ†‘ 2.0% by 2027
Projected
$588K
โ†‘ 0.3% by 2028
5yr CAGR:-0.2%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.29
โ–ผ

The Richmond housing market forecast for 2026-2028 suggests a period of stabilization rather than dramatic growth or decline. After a recent YoY Price Change of -5.6%, the market is cooling from its pandemic-era highs, with the current Median Home Price at $586,072. This correction, however, is occurring against a backdrop of constrained supply and ongoing demand from buyers priced out of more expensive Bay Area locales. The Days on Market of 37 indicates that well-priced homes still move relatively quickly, preventing a steep inventory buildup. While the 5-Year Price Change of just 0.2% highlights a period of stagnation, the local economy, bolstered by the Rosie the Riveter WWII Home Front National Historical Park and expanding waterfront developments, provides a foundational support that may limit further losses.

Prospective buyers will naturally ask, will Richmond home prices drop further in the near term? The current Price-to-Rent Ratio of 18.8x, slightly above the national average, suggests that buying remains a significant financial commitment compared to renting, which could temper demand from cost-sensitive households. However, the Market Temperature of 64/100 and a Risk Grade of B+ signal a relatively balanced environment rather than a crashing one. Affordability initiatives and the cityโ€™s strategic position along the I-80 corridor continue to attract investment, though interest rate sensitivity remains a key variable. For those analyzing Richmond real estate Richmond 2027, the forecast points toward modest appreciation as the market digests recent corrections and aligns more closely with broader regional trends.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.9%
5yr CAGR
-0.2%

Job Market

Unemployment 5.2%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +1.5%

Healthcare

78
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 100.0%
Months Supply 3.0
Price Drops 17%
Gone in 2 Wks 27%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Richmond.

Total ROI
-118%
on $127,000 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$150,326
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$2,710
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y1132kY2138kY3144kY4150kY5157k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$150,326
Final Equity
$156,770

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Richmond

Property

Purchase Price$635,000
Monthly Rent$2,304
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$2,311
Monthly Cash Flow
-$27,735/ year
-21.8%
Cash-on-Cash
1.7%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$2,304
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$3,211
โˆ’ Property Tax$635
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$529
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$115
= Net Cash Flow-$2,311

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$127,000
Loan Amount
$508,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$4,615
Gross Yield
4.4%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026