Rochester
Investment Analysis

Rochester, NY
Housing Market Screening

City-level home-price and one-bedroom-rent references with transparent methodology and limitations.

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City-level screening

15.2x

Home price / annualized 1BR rent

Gross annual 1BR-rent reference
6.6%
Recorded YoY field
+2.4%

Not cap rate, ROI, valuation or buy-versus-rent advice. City fields may reflect different source years.

Median Home Price
$191,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,050/mo
Median Income
$48,618
Population
207,264

Housing Screening Context

Rochester has a computed screening multiple of 15.2x and a gross annual 1BR-rent reference of 6.6%.

These values compare separate city-level fields, not one matched property. They exclude financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, transaction costs and tenure horizon.

Recorded year-over-year price change: +2.4%. Source period and forecast assumptions should be reviewed before scenario use.

Read the transparent methodology or open the Housing Research Hub.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,050
Annual Gross $12,600

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$239
Insurance (~0.5%) -$80
Maintenance (~1%) -$159
Est. Net Cash Flow $573/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Rochester Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$248K2027$259Kโ–ฒ 4.5%2028$270Kโ–ฒ 8.7%20242025Now
$283K$210K
Current
$191K
2026
Projected
$259K
โ†‘ 4.5% by 2027
Projected
$270K
โ†‘ 8.7% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+5.0%
Confidence:Moderate
Rยฒ:0.92
โ–ผ

Using the corrected Redfin-backed median sale price of $191,000, the Rochester housing forecast is best described as affordability-supported but supply-constrained. Recent Redfin data shows year-over-year price movement near 12.4%, while inventory remains tight at about 1.4 months of supply. That setup can support prices even when higher mortgage rates limit buyer budgets.

For 2026-2028, the most reasonable base case is continued competition for well-priced homes rather than a broad crash. Buyers should watch local inventory, mortgage rates, and neighborhood-level comps. The corrected median price materially changes affordability math, so forecasts should be based on $191,000 rather than the stale $731,000 value.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.0%
5yr CAGR
+5%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.3%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +0.8%

Healthcare

80
Score
Excellent

Risk Factors

High Crime Area

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-05-31
Sale-to-List 116.1%
Months Supply 1.4
Price Drops 19%
Gone in 2 Wks 76%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Model an editable scenario

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Rochester.

Total ROI
3%
on $38,200 invested
Annual ROI
0.5%
compounded
Total Return
$980
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$476
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y144kY251kY357kY464kY571k
Appreciation
$23,942
Cash Flow
-$22,962
Final Equity
$71,096

* Estimates based on 2.4% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Scenario Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Cash-Flow Scenario

Pre-filled for Rochester

Property

Purchase Price$191,000
Monthly Rent$1,050
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$443
Modeled Monthly Cash Flow
-$5,322/ year
-13.9%
Cash-on-Cash
3.3%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,050
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$966
โˆ’ Property Tax$191
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$159
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$53
= Net Cash Flow-$443

Scenario Summary

Down Payment
$38,200
Loan Amount
$152,800
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,493
Gross Yield
6.6%

Investor Toolkit

Research Rochester before you invest

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: July 2026