Erie
Investment Analysis

Erie, PA
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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65
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
3.4%
Gross Yield
5.6%
P/R Ratio
16.4x
YoY Growth
+6.1%
Median Home Price
$162,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$757/mo
Median Income
$41,377
Population
92,953

Investment Breakdown

51
Value Score
100
Growth Score
54
Safety Score
59
Afford Score

Erie has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.4x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 3.4% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of +6.1% shows strong appreciation momentum.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $757
Annual Gross $9,084

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$203
Insurance (~0.5%) -$68
Maintenance (~1%) -$135
Est. Net Cash Flow $352/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Erie Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$192K2027$205Kโ–ฒ 7.1%2028$218Kโ–ฒ 13.6%20232024Now
$229K$148K
Current
$162K
2026
Projected
$205K
โ†‘ 7.1% by 2027
Projected
$218K
โ†‘ 13.6% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+8.0%
Confidence:High
Rยฒ:0.99
โ–ผ

Looking ahead to the 2026-2028 period, the Erie housing market forecast suggests a period of stabilization rather than explosive growth. After a remarkable 5-year price change of 49.2%, the market is showing signs of normalizing. The current median home price of $191,673 and a price-to-rent ratio of 18.4x indicate that while still slightly above the national average, buying remains a relatively accessible entry point compared to larger metropolitan areas. With a market temperature of 69/100, activity is healthy but not frenzied, and the days on market of 21 signals that well-priced homes will still move quickly without the bidding wars seen in hotter markets.

When asking will Erie home prices drop, the data points to modest appreciation rather than a correction. The 4.8% YoY price change reflects a cooling from prior highs, but the risk grade of A and strong affordability fundamentals provide a solid floor. Local economic drivers, including the healthcare sector, manufacturing at Wabtec, and a steady influx of remote workers seeking affordability, will likely underpin demand. However, the neutral buy/rent verdict suggests that potential buyers should carefully evaluate their timeline. For those looking at Erie real estate Erie 2027, the outlook is balanced; expect single-digit appreciation as the market digests recent gains, making it a sustainable environment for long-term residents rather than a speculative hotspot.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
2.7%
5yr CAGR
+8%

Job Market

Unemployment 3.7%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +0.9%

Healthcare

76
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Low Risk Profile

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 97.2%
Months Supply 2.0
Price Drops 24%
Gone in 2 Wks 46%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Erie.

Total ROI
87%
on $32,400 invested
Annual ROI
13.3%
compounded
Total Return
$28,220
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$531
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y144kY256kY368kY482kY596k
Appreciation
$56,022
Cash Flow
-$27,802
Final Equity
$96,017

* Estimates based on 6.1% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Erie

Property

Purchase Price$162,000
Monthly Rent$757
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$522
Monthly Cash Flow
-$6,264/ year
-19.3%
Cash-on-Cash
2.2%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$757
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$819
โˆ’ Property Tax$162
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$135
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$38
= Net Cash Flow-$522

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$32,400
Loan Amount
$129,600
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,279
Gross Yield
5.6%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026