Houston
Investment Analysis

Houston, TX
Housing Market Screening

City-level home-price and one-bedroom-rent references with transparent methodology and limitations.

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City-level screening

24.6x

Home price / annualized 1BR rent

Gross annual 1BR-rent reference
4.1%
Recorded YoY field
-3.0%

Not cap rate, ROI, valuation or buy-versus-rent advice. City fields may reflect different source years.

Median Home Price
$335,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,135/mo
Median Income
$62,637
Population
2,311,461

Housing Screening Context

Houston has a computed screening multiple of 24.6x and a gross annual 1BR-rent reference of 4.1%.

These values compare separate city-level fields, not one matched property. They exclude financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, transaction costs and tenure horizon.

Recorded year-over-year price change: -3.0%. Source period and forecast assumptions should be reviewed before scenario use.

Read the transparent methodology or open the Housing Research Hub.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,135
Annual Gross $13,620

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$419
Insurance (~0.5%) -$140
Maintenance (~1%) -$279
Est. Net Cash Flow $298/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Houston Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$265K2027$284Kโ–ฒ 7.2%2028$289Kโ–ฒ 9.0%20232024Now
$303K$252K
Current
$335K
2026
Projected
$284K
โ†‘ 7.2% by 2027
Projected
$289K
โ†‘ 9.0% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+2.8%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.28
โ–ผ

For those asking "will Houston home prices drop," the current data suggests stability rather than a significant downturn. The market's recent cooling is visible in the -2.9% year-over-year price change, a natural correction after a robust 24.3% five-year gain. This positions the "Houston housing market forecast" for 2026-2028 as one of moderate, sustainable growth. With a Price-to-Rent ratio of 17.4x, below the national average, Houston remains relatively affordable, supporting continued demand from both owner-occupants and investors. The current median price of $260,149 provides a stable baseline, and the neutral buy/rent verdict indicates a balanced environment without extreme froth.

Looking toward the Houston real estate Houston 2027 landscape, the city's economic fundamentals are a key driver. Continued expansion in energy, healthcare, and port logistics will likely bolster housing demand, offsetting potential national headwinds. However, local factors like property insurance costs and property tax rates remain considerations for buyers. The 57 days on market suggests homes are moving at a measured pace, giving buyers more leverage than in recent years. While a 58/100 market temperature indicates a slight cooling, the "A" risk grade underscores the market's underlying strength and resilience, likely preventing drastic price swings.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.0%
5yr CAGR
+2.8%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

High Crime Area
Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-05-31
Sale-to-List 97.2%
Months Supply 4.5
Price Drops 29%
Gone in 2 Wks 33%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Model an editable scenario

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Houston.

Total ROI
-126%
on $67,000 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$84,324
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,506
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y170kY273kY376kY479kY583k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$84,324
Final Equity
$82,705

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Scenario Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Cash-Flow Scenario

Pre-filled for Houston

Property

Purchase Price$335,000
Monthly Rent$1,135
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,355
Modeled Monthly Cash Flow
-$16,258/ year
-24.3%
Cash-on-Cash
1.2%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,135
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,694
โˆ’ Property Tax$335
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$279
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$57
= Net Cash Flow-$1,355

Scenario Summary

Down Payment
$67,000
Loan Amount
$268,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$2,490
Gross Yield
4.1%

Investor Toolkit

Research Houston before you invest

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: July 2026