Houston
Investment Analysis

Houston, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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35
Investment Score
Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
2.4%
Gross Yield
4.1%
P/R Ratio
16.0x
YoY Growth
-3.0%
Median Home Price
$335,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,135/mo
Median Income
$62,637
Population
2,311,461

Investment Breakdown

52
Value Score
20
Growth Score
9
Safety Score
50
Afford Score

Houston has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.0x, which indicates buying is moderately favorable.

The estimated cap rate of 2.4% is below average, typical of appreciation-focused markets.

Year-over-year price growth of -3.0% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,135
Annual Gross $13,620

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$419
Insurance (~0.5%) -$140
Maintenance (~1%) -$279
Est. Net Cash Flow $298/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Houston Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$260K2027$285Kโ–ฒ 9.7%2028$293Kโ–ฒ 12.7%20232024Now
$308K$247K
Current
$335K
2026
Projected
$285K
โ†‘ 9.7% by 2027
Projected
$293K
โ†‘ 12.7% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+4.2%
Confidence:Low
Rยฒ:0.48
โ–ผ

For those asking "will Houston home prices drop," the current data suggests stability rather than a significant downturn. The market's recent cooling is visible in the -2.9% year-over-year price change, a natural correction after a robust 24.3% five-year gain. This positions the "Houston housing market forecast" for 2026-2028 as one of moderate, sustainable growth. With a Price-to-Rent ratio of 17.4x, below the national average, Houston remains relatively affordable, supporting continued demand from both owner-occupants and investors. The current median price of $260,149 provides a stable baseline, and the neutral buy/rent verdict indicates a balanced environment without extreme froth.

Looking toward the Houston real estate Houston 2027 landscape, the city's economic fundamentals are a key driver. Continued expansion in energy, healthcare, and port logistics will likely bolster housing demand, offsetting potential national headwinds. However, local factors like property insurance costs and property tax rates remain considerations for buyers. The 57 days on market suggests homes are moving at a measured pace, giving buyers more leverage than in recent years. While a 58/100 market temperature indicates a slight cooling, the "A" risk grade underscores the market's underlying strength and resilience, likely preventing drastic price swings.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.0%
5yr CAGR
+4.2%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

High Crime Area
Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 96.0%
Months Supply 7.1
Price Drops 23%
Gone in 2 Wks 23%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Houston.

Total ROI
-126%
on $67,000 invested
Annual ROI
NaN%
compounded
Total Return
-$84,324
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,506
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y170kY273kY376kY479kY583k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$84,324
Final Equity
$82,705

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Houston

Property

Purchase Price$335,000
Monthly Rent$1,135
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,355
Monthly Cash Flow
-$16,258/ year
-24.3%
Cash-on-Cash
1.2%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,135
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$1,694
โˆ’ Property Tax$335
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$279
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$57
= Net Cash Flow-$1,355

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$67,000
Loan Amount
$268,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$2,490
Gross Yield
4.1%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026