Chicago
Investment Analysis

Chicago, IL
Housing Market Screening

City-level home-price and one-bedroom-rent references with transparent methodology and limitations.

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City-level screening

23.5x

Home price / annualized 1BR rent

Gross annual 1BR-rent reference
4.3%
Recorded YoY field
+2.3%

Not cap rate, ROI, valuation or buy-versus-rent advice. City fields may reflect different source years.

Median Home Price
$425,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,507/mo
Median Income
$74,474
Population
2,664,454

Housing Screening Context

Chicago has a computed screening multiple of 23.5x and a gross annual 1BR-rent reference of 4.3%.

These values compare separate city-level fields, not one matched property. They exclude financing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, transaction costs and tenure horizon.

Recorded year-over-year price change: +2.3%. Source period and forecast assumptions should be reviewed before scenario use.

Read the transparent methodology or open the Housing Research Hub.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,507
Annual Gross $18,084

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$531
Insurance (~0.5%) -$177
Maintenance (~1%) -$354
Est. Net Cash Flow $445/mo

Price Forecast 2026–2028

🔮 Chicago Price Forecast 20262028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis · Statistical projection
📈 Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$336K2027$336K 0.2%2028$342K 2.0%20232025Now
$359K$293K
Current
$425K
2026
Projected
$336K
0.2% by 2027
Projected
$342K
2.0% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+2.1%
Confidence:Moderate
R²:0.81

For those asking "will Chicago home prices drop," the data suggests a period of stabilization rather than a sharp correction. The current median price of $305,295 has seen a modest YoY increase of 2.0%, indicating a market that is losing steam but not collapsing. With a price-to-rent ratio of 15.8x, which sits below the national average of 18x, the local market remains relatively balanced for both buyers and renters. Our Chicago housing market forecast for 2026-2028 anticipates this equilibrium will hold, supported by a consistent 5-year CAGR of 2.7% and a market temperature score of 66/100, signaling a moderate, sustainable pace.

Looking ahead to Chicago real estate Chicago 2027 and beyond, affordability will be a key driver. The city's diverse economy, anchored in finance and tech, provides a buffer against volatility, but high property taxes and lingering urban migration challenges could cap appreciation. The current risk grade of A reflects a safe, albeit unexciting, investment environment. With homes moving off the market in just 31 days, demand remains healthy, but the neutral buy/rent verdict suggests that neither side holds a distinct advantage. Expect steady, low-single-digit growth as the market prioritizes stability over speculative gains.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
3.3%
5yr CAGR
+2.1%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.5%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +0.5%

Healthcare

77
Score
Good

Risk Factors

High Crime Area

Market Activity

Source: Redfin · 2026-05-31
Sale-to-List 101.8%
Months Supply 2.8
Price Drops 13%
Gone in 2 Wks 51%

Market Position

Affordability Average
Safety Higher Risk

ROI Projector Model an editable scenario

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Chicago.

Total ROI
-60%
on $85,000 invested
Annual ROI
-16.6%
compounded
Total Return
-$50,689
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$1,847
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y198kY2112kY3127kY4142kY5157k
Appreciation
$52,107
Cash Flow
-$102,797
Final Equity
$157,032

* Estimates based on 2.3% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Scenario Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Cash-Flow Scenario

Pre-filled for Chicago

Property

Purchase Price$425,000
Monthly Rent$1,507
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$1,622
Modeled Monthly Cash Flow
-$19,459/ year
-22.9%
Cash-on-Cash
1.5%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,507
− Mortgage (P&I)$2,149
− Property Tax$425
− Insurance$125
− Maintenance$354
− Vacancy Loss$75
= Net Cash Flow-$1,622

Scenario Summary

Down Payment
$85,000
Loan Amount
$340,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$3,129
Gross Yield
4.3%

Investor Toolkit

Research Chicago before you invest

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: August 2026