Pharr
Investment Analysis

Pharr, TX
Investor Report

Comprehensive real estate investment analysis with cap rates, rental yields, and risk assessment.

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54
Investment Score
Strong Buy
Cap Rate (Est.)
4.5%
Gross Yield
7.6%
P/R Ratio
10.1x
YoY Growth
-2.6%
Median Home Price
$170,000
Average Rent (1BR)
$1,070/mo
Median Income
$57,171
Population
80,409

Investment Breakdown

70
Value Score
24
Growth Score
55
Safety Score
64
Afford Score

Pharr has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.1x, which indicates buying is significantly better than renting.

The estimated cap rate of 4.5% is around the national average.

Year-over-year price growth of -2.6% suggests a cooling market.

Rental Cash Flow Analysis

Monthly Income

Gross Rent $1,070
Annual Gross $12,840

Est. Monthly Expenses

Property Tax (~1.5%) -$213
Insurance (~0.5%) -$71
Maintenance (~1%) -$142
Est. Net Cash Flow $645/mo

Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

๐Ÿ”ฎ Pharr Price Forecast 2026โ€“2028

Based on 5-year Zillow ZHVI trend analysis ยท Statistical projection
๐Ÿ“ˆ Upward Trend
PROJECTEDNOW$161K2027$184Kโ–ฒ 14.3%2028$194Kโ–ฒ 20.3%20232024Now
$203K$144K
Current
$170K
2026
Projected
$184K
โ†‘ 14.3% by 2027
Projected
$194K
โ†‘ 20.3% by 2028
5yr CAGR:+6.6%
Confidence:Moderate
Rยฒ:0.80
โ–ผ

For anyone evaluating the Pharr housing market forecast through 2028, the data paints a picture of affordability and stability rather than explosive growth. With a current median home price of $160,914 and a price-to-rent ratio of just 11.1x, well below the national average, the market remains attractive for both investors and first-time buyers. The recent -2.4% YoY price change suggests a cooling period after a strong 5-year run that saw prices climb 39.7% (a 6.8% CAGR). However, a 35-day average on market and a "BUY" verdict indicate underlying demand persists. Local economic factors, including Pharr's role as a logistics hub near the Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge, should support steady, albeit modest, appreciation as cross-border trade continues to be a key regional driver.

When asking, "will Pharr home prices drop," the answer likely points toward stabilization rather than a significant decline. The market temperature of 60/100 and an "A" risk grade suggest a balanced environment that is resilient to the volatility seen in hotter markets. Affordability is Pharr's strongest asset; with median rent at $1,070/mo, the cost of ownership remains accessible compared to national norms, which should prevent any drastic price corrections. As we look toward Pharr real estate Pharr 2027, growth will likely be driven by continued regional population migration and the city's infrastructure development. While the era of rapid appreciation may be moderating, the combination of low entry prices and strong rental demand creates a foundation for sustainable gains.

Projected Cap Rate (2027)
4.3%
5yr CAGR
+6.6%

Job Market

Unemployment 4.0%
National avg: 3.7%
Job Growth (YoY) +3.2%

Healthcare

70
Score
Good

Risk Factors

Declining Prices

Market Activity

Source: Redfin ยท 2026-01-31
Sale-to-List 97.1%
Months Supply 8.6
Price Drops 15%
Gone in 2 Wks 13%

Market Position

Affordability Below Avg
Safety Average

ROI Projector Estimate your total return

Adjust the sliders to model different investment scenarios for Pharr.

Total ROI
-35%
on $34,000 invested
Annual ROI
-8.3%
compounded
Total Return
-$11,993
appreciation + cashflow
Mo. Cash Flow
-$295
year 1 estimate
Equity Growth Over 5 Years
Y135kY237kY338kY440kY542k
Appreciation
$0
Cash Flow
-$11,993
Final Equity
$41,970

* Estimates based on 0.0% annual appreciation, 3% rent growth, 5% vacancy. Does not include closing costs, tax benefits, or capital gains tax. For illustrative purposes only.

Rental Investment Calculator Estimate your monthly cashflow

Rental Income Estimator

Pre-filled for Pharr

Property

Purchase Price$170,000
Monthly Rent$1,070
Down Payment20%

Financing

Interest Rate6.5%

Expenses

Property Tax1.2%
Insurance (Annual)$1,500
Maintenance Reserve1%
Vacancy Rate5%
Property Management0%
HOA (Monthly)$0
-$280
Monthly Cash Flow
-$3,357/ year
-9.9%
Cash-on-Cash
4.1%
Cap Rate

Monthly Breakdown

+ Rental Income$1,070
โˆ’ Mortgage (P&I)$860
โˆ’ Property Tax$170
โˆ’ Insurance$125
โˆ’ Maintenance$142
โˆ’ Vacancy Loss$54
= Net Cash Flow-$280

Investment Summary

Down Payment
$34,000
Loan Amount
$136,000
Total Monthly Expenses
$1,350
Gross Yield
7.6%

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investment decisions should be made after consulting with qualified professionals. Data sources include Zillow, Census Bureau, and BLS. Cap rates and yields are estimates based on available data.

Last updated: March 2026