Tracy, CA: The 2026 Relocation Deep Dive

Tracy: The Data Profile (2026)

Tracy represents a specific economic paradox in the post-remote work landscape. With a population of 98,006, it functions as a "bedroom community" for the Bay Area, yet it possesses a distinct local economy. The median income sits at $123,525, a staggering +65.6% increase over the US median of $74,580. However, this high income is immediately eroded by a housing market that is +45.0% more expensive than the national baseline.

The educational attainment rate is 26.5% for bachelor's degrees or higher, significantly lower than the US average of 33.1%. This suggests a workforce heavily skewed toward logistics, trade, and service industries rather than the tech-centric demographics found in Silicon Valley. The statistical target for Tracy in 2026 is the "hybrid commuter"—households earning between $110,000 and $150,000 who require more square footage than the Bay Area can offer and are willing to tolerate a 100+ mile round-trip commute 2-3 days per week.

Cost of Living Analysis

The Cost of Living Index (100 = US Average) paints a picture of uniform expense. While housing is the primary driver, essential services are also inflated. Groceries sit at 104.7, transportation at 108.8, and healthcare at 109.2. The most distinct outlier is electricity, which costs 31.97 cents/kWh—nearly double the US average of 16.0 cents/kWh.

Table 1: Cost of Living Breakdown (Monthly Budgets)

Disposable Income Analysis:
A single earner making the median income of $123,525 takes home approximately $7,600/month after taxes. Subtracting the $3,427 monthly budget leaves a surplus of $4,173. However, a family on the same single income faces a tighter margin, with only $1,230 remaining after the $6,370 monthly outlay. This indicates that a dual-income household is almost mandatory to maintain financial stability in Tracy.

Housing Market Deep Dive

The housing market is the defining friction point. The median home price is heavily inflated due to spillover demand from the coast. Renting a 1-bedroom unit at $1,742/mo is significantly more expensive than the national average, but buying presents an even steeper entry barrier. The Price/SqFt of $385 highlights that you are paying for the zip code, not necessarily the structure.

Table 2: Housing Market Data (Buying vs Renting Analysis)

Buy vs. Rent Verdict:
Buying in Tracy requires a down payment of roughly $139,000 (20%). With a 7.0% mortgage rate, the monthly payment (PITI) exceeds $4,800. Renting the equivalent 3-bedroom home costs $2,650. Mathematically, renting is 45% cheaper monthly than buying. Unless you plan to stay for 10+ years to ride out market volatility, renting is the financially superior option relative to the national curve.

Economic & Job Market Outlook

Tracy’s economy is historically rooted in agriculture and freight. However, the 2026 landscape is defined by the "Hybrid Corridor." The unemployment rate is a concerning 5.5%, significantly higher than the US average of 4.0%. This suggests a local job market that has not fully recovered or diversified.

RTO (Return to Office) Impact:
For the 26.5% of residents commuting to the Bay Area, the commute is a major variable. The average drive to San Francisco is 90 minutes each way without traffic. With hybrid schedules, the cost of gas (transportation index 108.8) and tolls averages $400/month for 2-3 days in office. Proximity to the I-580 and I-205 corridors is critical; living on the south side of Tracy can shave 10-15 minutes off the daily commute.

Quality of Life Audit

Tracy offers a "cleaner" lifestyle compared to the urban core, but with specific health trade-offs. The Health Score of 82.3/100 is robust, driven by lower-than-average smoking rates (11.4% vs 14.0%). However, the Air Quality Index (AQI) of 51 (Moderate) and PM2.5 levels of 10.5 µg/m³ are influenced by the valley geography, which traps agricultural particulates and wildfire smoke.

Table 3: Quality of Life Metrics

Safety & Environment:

• Violent Crime: 345 per 100k (Better than US avg of 380).
• Property Crime: 2,567 per 100k (Significantly higher than US avg of 2,000).
• Schools: Tracy Unified School District has a graduation rate of 88%, slightly below the state average.
• Weather: The current snapshot (37°F, frost) reflects the winter reality. Summers are hot (often 90°F+), and winters see frost, but snow is rare.

The Verdict

Pros:

• High Income Potential: Median income is $48,945 higher than the US average.
• Family Space: Lower density allows for larger homes (if purchased correctly).
• Safety: Violent crime is below the national average.
• Health: Lower smoking rates and decent health scores.

Cons:

• Housing Cost Disparity: Home prices are +68.7% higher than the US average, decimating wealth accumulation for buyers.
• Commute: The "Bay Area Tax" on time is severe (90+ mins).
• Economic Fragility: Unemployment is 1.5% higher than the national average.
• Utilities: Electricity costs nearly 2x the national average.

Final Recommendation:
Tracy is a BUY for renters who work remotely full-time or a HOLD for buyers who intend to stay 10+ years. It is a SELL for anyone dependent on a daily commute to San Francisco or Silicon Valley. The data suggests Tracy is a high-cost, medium-benefit location that is only viable if your income is decoupled from the local economic base.

FAQs

1. What salary is needed to live comfortably in Tracy in 2026?
For a single person, a gross salary of $90,000 is the minimum to cover the $3,427 monthly budget while saving 15%. For a family, you need a household income of at least $160,000 to maintain a similar savings rate.

2. How does Tracy's value compare to Stockton or Modesto?
Tracy commands a premium. Stockton’s housing index is roughly 115 (vs Tracy's 145), offering 20% savings on housing, but with higher crime rates. Modesto offers similar savings but increases the commute distance by an additional 30-40 minutes.

3. Is the property crime rate truly dangerous?
The property crime rate of 2,567 per 100k is 28.3% higher than the US average. While violent crime is low, theft from vehicles and residential burglary are statistically higher than average. Security systems are highly recommended.

4. When is the best time to move to Tracy?
The best time is late Spring (May) or early Fall (October). Winter moves (like the current 37°F weather) complicate logistics with frost and slippery roads, while summer temperatures frequently exceed 95°F, making moving physically grueling.