New leader
North Carolina
+84,064
Latest net domestic migration—above Texas and South Carolina.
Q2 2026 editionLatest official releases as of July 13, 2026
America’s migration map is more two-way than the headlines suggest
The latest evidence reveals new state leaders, powerful reverse flows and a sharp distinction between domestic and international migration.
Q2 is the publication edition—not a claim of Q2-only observed moves
Corridors use 2024 ACS 1-year estimates. State net domestic migration uses Census Vintage 2025 for July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025. Q2 describes when this analysis was published and interpreted.
Three findings that reset the 2026 migration narrative
Largest corridor
California → Texas
77,198
90% MOE ±9,890; reverse flow Texas → California was 45,803.
Two-way exchange
CA ↔ TX
123,001
Gross movement in both directions; directional balance was 31,395 toward Texas.
The largest exchanges run both ways
Gross exchange adds both directions. Balance measures the difference—not the total movement.
California ↔ Texas123,001
Balance: California to Texas • 31,395
Florida ↔ Texas97,000
Balance: Florida to Texas • 7,400
New Jersey ↔ New York94,271
Balance: New York to New Jersey • 21,559
Florida ↔ Georgia89,370
Balance: Florida to Georgia • 18,230
Florida ↔ New York79,925
Balance: New York to Florida • 25,117
Arizona ↔ California79,797
Balance: California to Arizona • 22,705
California ↔ Nevada75,315
Balance: California to Nevada • 32,317
California ↔ Washington73,617
Balance: California to Washington • 22,339
Largest observed corridors
Weighted people estimates with 90% margins of error.
| Rank | Corridor | Estimate | 90% MOE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California Texas | 77,198 | ±9,890 |
| 2 | New York New Jersey | 57,915 | ±9,105 |
| 3 | California Nevada | 53,816 | ±8,136 |
| 4 | Florida Georgia | 53,800 | ±9,235 |
| 5 | New York Florida | 52,521 | ±7,743 |
| 6 | Florida Texas | 52,200 | ±8,633 |
| 7 | California Arizona | 51,251 | ±7,068 |
| 8 | California Washington | 47,978 | ±6,610 |
| 9 | Texas California | 45,803 | ±6,792 |
| 10 | Texas Florida | 44,800 | ±12,461 |
Domestic winners and losses
Largest gains
- 1. North Carolina+84,064
- 2. Texas+67,299
- 3. South Carolina+66,622
- 4. Tennessee+42,389
- 5. Arizona+31,107
- 6. Georgia+27,333
- 7. Alabama+23,358
- 8. Florida+22,517
Largest losses
- 1. California−229,077
- 2. New York−137,586
- 3. Illinois−40,017
- 4. New Jersey−37,428
- 5. Massachusetts−33,340
- 6. Louisiana−14,387
- 7. Maryland−12,127
- 8. Colorado−12,100
Methodology and limits
Corridors: Ocity aggregates ACS 2024 1-year PUMS using prior state (`MIGSP`), current state (`STATE`) and person weight (`PWGTP`). MOE uses all 80 replicate weights.
State outcomes: Net domestic, international and total migration components come from Census `NST-EST2025-COMP` for July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025.
Caution: These datasets describe movement, not personal motivations. The report does not claim taxes, housing, remote work or politics caused any corridor.