CA → Texas
77,198
90% MOE ±9,890
2026 research edition
California migration is not a one-way exodus
The largest outbound routes are real—but reverse flows reveal a more complex exchange between California and the rest of America.
The dates matter
State-to-state flows are 2024 ACS annual estimates. California population components cover July 1, 2024–July 1, 2025 in Census Vintage 2025. “2026” is the report edition, not the flow observation year.
California’s migration story in four numbers
Texas → CA
45,803
Reverse flow
Gross exchange
123,001
Both directions
Net domestic
−229,077
2024–2025 PEP
Where Californians moved
Weighted annual estimates; bar length shows outbound volume.
1. Texas77,198 ± 9,890
2. Nevada53,816 ± 8,136
3. Arizona51,251 ± 7,068
4. Washington47,978 ± 6,610
5. Florida37,272 ± 6,499
6. Oregon30,239 ± 4,949
7. New York30,149 ± 4,556
8. Tennessee19,766 ± 4,993
9. Colorado19,757 ± 3,776
10. Virginia19,332 ± 5,071
11. North Carolina17,449 ± 4,449
12. Idaho17,153 ± 3,285
The reverse-flow reality
Every major route also carries people back to California. Gross exchange and directional balance answer different questions.
| State pair | CA outbound | Into CA | Gross exchange | Dominant direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| California ↔ Texas | 77,198 | 45,803 | 123,001 | California to Texas · 31,395 |
| California ↔ Arizona | 51,251 | 28,546 | 79,797 | California to Arizona · 22,705 |
| California ↔ Nevada | 53,816 | 21,499 | 75,315 | California to Nevada · 32,317 |
| California ↔ Washington | 47,978 | 25,639 | 73,617 | California to Washington · 22,339 |
| California ↔ New York | 30,149 | 25,609 | 55,758 | California to New York · 4,540 |
| California ↔ Florida | 37,272 | 15,268 | 52,540 | California to Florida · 22,004 |
| California ↔ Oregon | 30,239 | 19,800 | 50,039 | California to Oregon · 10,439 |
| California ↔ Virginia | 19,332 | 16,371 | 35,703 | California to Virginia · 2,961 |
Population components
- Net domestic migration
- −229,077
- Net international migration
- +109,278
- Total net migration
- −119,799
- Total population change
- −9,465
What the data cannot tell us
- Why any individual moved.
- Whether taxes, housing or politics caused a route.
- City-to-city volumes inside state estimates.
- Moves observed specifically during 2026.
Methodology and downloads
Ocity aggregates 2024 ACS 1-year PUMS using current state, prior state and person weights. Margins use all 80 replicate weights. Population components come directly from Census Vintage 2025. Flow estimates and net population components are separate statistical products.